The Global Competitiveness Index (GCI): dynamics of the position of Belarus (2015-2016)

Project reference
CASE Belarus implements the study using a unique micro-data from the 2012 poll jointly run by the Ministry of Economy of Belarus and CASE Belarus. The survey of Belarusian companies executives is to evaluate business opinion about the competitiveness of the economy using WEF methodology. Using results of other surveys and macroeconomic data of different international sources, the analysis of the potential place of Belarus in GCI report is performed.

Project title: The Global Competitiveness Index (GCI): dynamics of the position of Belarus

Project duration: May 2015 – January 2016

Abstract

Belarus is not on the list of the Global Competitiveness Index (GCI) of the World Economic Forum so far. The ranking has been playing the significant role in determining the economic potential of participating countries (148 by now) for more than 30 years. Countries ranked high in GCI have number of advantages including positive signals for international investors. The overall goal of the project is to determine the potential place of Belarus in the Global Competitiveness Report and prepare recommendations for strengthening the competitiveness of the economy of Belarus based on the break-down of the potential score. Policy recommendations are to be presented and discussed with representatives of the Ministry of Economy, the Ministry of Labour and Social Policy, and the National Bank of Belarus.

Objectives

Specific objectives of the project are the following:

  • To determine the position of Belarus in GCI ranking in 2012 and 2013;
  • To analyze the key problems, hindering the growth of Belarus competitiveness;
  • To test a hypothesis that positive dynamics of Belarus position in GCI rating can be achieved by addressing key problems in the labor and capital market;
  • To prepare a package of recommendations for structural reforms (how to improve allocation of resources in order to solve existing problems in labour and capital markets);
  • To estimate an effect of the elimination of key challenges, including improving the allocation of resources, reducing the concessional lending, increasing the capacity of human resources, etc.

Results

  • Analytical paper about the potential place of Belarus in GCI ranking in 2012/2013 and 2013/2014 (in Russian).
  • Analytical report that includes recommendations on how to increase the position of Belarus in GCC ranking (in Russian);
  • Policy paper, containing key proposals for government in terms of structural economic reforms (in Russian).

Outputs

  • Public presentation of research results in Minsk for officials, economists and representatives of civil society and mass media;
  • Analytical report and policy paper published at CASE Belarus website and shared with think tanks, interested governmental institutions, universities and mass media;
  • Publishing two articles and interview about the research and its results in media;
  • Presentation of the results during a scientific conference.

Main findings

The main findings of the project are the following:

  • Belarus improved the position in GCI ranking from 61 in 2012/13 to 55 in 2013/2014.
  • Estimated annual costs of unrealized structural reforms amount to no less than 5.5% of GDP (USD 7.2 bln by PPP in constant 2011 international $)

 Public presentation video

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