How much could Belarus government get
if selling Top-20 of its state-owned giants?
Our colleague Maksim Adaskievich* argues that if for some reason (e.g. a desperate need for funds) the Belarusian government agrees to a privatization of the TOP-20 state-owned companies, the proceeds will likely be
under $5 billion.
This amount would be sufficient for the government to cover the projected budget deficit of around $2 billion in 2021 and meet the payments on external debt of ca. $3 billion in 2021 without drawing down foreign currency reserves or attracting additional funding. This would, of course, significantly reduce the immediate strain on public finances. However, the relief would not last more than a couple of years and this would not be a good reason for the government to consider any sort of a large- scale privatization. The political and ideological importance of controlling the largest state-owned companies would likely outweigh any short- or medium-term monetary benefits from their sale.
To see where does this amount comes from, read a short (3 pages, 5-6 minutes reading) CASE Belarus policy brief here:
* Maksim Adaskievich is a Senior Associate, Valuation Advisory Services at Duff and Phelps Germany GmbH. All views and calculations in this paper belong to the author and not to CASE Belarus nor to Duff & Phelps Germany GmbH